On the fringe?

Christopher Leinberger, professor of urban and regional and planning at the University of Michigan and a Brookings Institute Fellow (in other words a bright guy), recently wrote an op-ed piece in the New York Times titled The Death of the Fringe Suburb. The article considers the role of automobile-centric suburban development in the mortgage meltdown and the Great Recession. And, it considers the sea-change in preferences that result in only 12% of future homebuyers being interested in houses in drivable suburban-fringe communities. He asserts that "We have to stop throwing good money after bad. It is time to instead build what the market wants: mixed-income, walkable cities and suburbs that will support the knowledge economy, promote environmental sustainability and create jobs."

It's a fascinating take on ex-urban living and the impact the market's changing preferences may have on the built environment. The article was sized as an op-ed piece. That said, if it was a deeper article it would also consider the sea-change we're experiencing in consumer preferences for buying vs. renting.

Home ownership peaked at something like 69% of all households in 2004. One research group projects it dropping all the way to 62% (below the historical average of ~65%) before rising again. Another interesting and compelling issue is how home ownership rates vary by race. in 2004 the rates were roughly 76% white, 60% asian, 55% native american and 49% african american, 48% hispanic.

When you consider those rates in the context of today's market, it is striking to consider how urbanity, and the shape and color of urban demographics, will drive public perception of the American dream. Indeed, before our founding fathers inserted "pursuit of happiness", life and liberty were followed by "property".

Property, difficult to own in Europe, was available in abundance in America. It still is. The ability to own property defined the early American experience for many. It still does. But, with the real estate run-up from Clinton through Bush in our rear view mirror, and a profoundly turbulent economic reality in front of us, consumers' preferences for owning vs. renting are changing. And perhaps most importantly, the kind of community where people want to live (more walkable, dynamic and community engaged) is changing.

I could talk for hours on this topic in a broad sense. But I find the topic of a trend toward density and diversity to be totally compelling. As a Gen X'er, I'm caught between those Boomers and their Echo. Our relatively small generation, however, may prove to be the swing vote in shaping the course of future urban, or suburban, development.

Many of us grew up in suburbs we no longer find interesting. Many of us held off on having kids until relatively late. Now, we're experiencing the changes that come from looking out for our kids' experiences - school, neighborhood... Many of my friends have moved down the road on what is in many respects a traditional voyage from the liberalism of youth to the conservativism of experience.

In the past, that philosophical evolution resulted in a movement to homogeneity - with sameness meant to act as a proxy for community. Nationally, and here in Milwaukee, we developed fringe communities that attempted to maintain an unsupportable reliance on the 'city' for its urbanity. The drive to homogeneity created hastily generated built environments that lacked the fundamental internal consistency of organic neighborhoods. The car was king, because the bedroom was far from the office, and so was consumable culture.

That pattern continued to the next fringe. Occasionally, 'real' urban places occurred in the overlapping areas of the development venn diagram. But rarely. Now, there's a trend toward master-planning mixed-use. Culturally, we seem to recognize the value of diversity of use and diversity of user. And, there's a growing sense that the lack of culture and cultural (or at least intellectual) diversity in the suburbs is unattractive.

In my personal life, my family has embraced a more urban lifestyle. We live in a beautiful residential neighborhood that has profound economic and cultural diversity within it. In my professional life, I've embraced mixed-use development as a mechanism to build community and to meet market desires. The challenge, though, is that mixed-use works best when it's the result of organic growth. That is to say, imposition of diversity is complicated - particularly where the stakeholders specifically sought homogeneity and the separation of 'us' from 'them'.

Unlike Mr. Leinberger, I'm not entirely convinced that the 'burbs are unsalvageable. But I do believe that they need to take directed action to remain (or even become for the first time) relevant to the way people actually want to live in our changing market.